Airlines are preparing for new mandates requiring a rising percentage of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in commercial flights. The policy direction is clear, but the economics are not: SAF remains significantly more expensive than conventional jet fuel, and supply is limited.

Carriers say they support the goal but warn that costs will land on passengers unless governments expand incentives. Producers argue that long-term purchase agreements are what unlock investment in new refineries, creating a chicken-and-egg problem between supply and demand.

Industry analysts expect a turbulent transition period. The airlines best positioned are those that secure early supply contracts and invest in efficiency measures to offset fuel premiums.